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Evidence standard

How TradeProview reaches an answer.

This page documents the inputs, formulas, labels and limitations behind market evidence, scenario weights, paper-practice analytics and the Skill Score. A score describes the available evidence or recorded process. It does not predict returns.

Methodology versionPhase 9E market update · 12 August 2026Platform releasephase-9e-market-coverage-hotfix-v1
FACT

An observed provider value or attributed source, such as a current price, recorded paper trade or dated headline.

CALCULATED

A deterministic value produced from disclosed inputs and a formula, such as RSI, a score or a paper-trade metric.

AI INTERPRETATION

A plain-English explanation of supplied facts and calculations. It may be incomplete and is never an instruction.

1. Market data and freshness

Crypto observations are sourced from CoinGecko. Supported stock and ETF observations use Finnhub. A surface may also name another configured provider when one is active. The observation timestamp is carried from the market-analysis record.

If a current value or sufficient historical closes cannot be retrieved, TradeProview displays Unavailable. It does not replace the missing value with a sample, extrapolate one-day movement into a longer period, or ask an AI model to invent a realistic number.

Forex and commodity exercises appear only when a configured provider has supplied current observations. An empty category is an honest data-availability state.

2. Market evidence score (0–10)

The market score begins at 5.0. Components contribute only when their required observed history is available:

ComponentRuleEffect
RSI (14)At least 15 observed closes. RSI below 30 or above 70.+2 below 30; −2 above 70; otherwise 0.
MACDAt least 26 observed closes. MACD compared with its signal line.+1 above; −1 below; 0 when equal or unavailable.
Observed multi-session changeThe recorded longer-period change is positive or negative.+1 positive; −1 negative; 0 when flat or unavailable.
technical score = clamp(5 + RSI effect + MACD effect + momentum effect, 0, 10)

If a verified fundamental score is supplied, the combined score is 80% technical and 20% fundamental. Otherwise the technical score is used without inserting a neutral placeholder.

Labels map as follows: 7.5–10 strong bullish evidence; 6.5–7.49 bullish evidence; 4.5–6.49 neutral evidence; 3.5–4.49 bearish evidence; below 3.5 strong bearish evidence.

3. Evidence alignment—not confidence

The Ideas page shows an evidence-alignment percentage. It measures how strongly the available score, observed 24-hour change and available RSI point in the same direction. It is not the probability of a price move, a success rate or backtested performance.

alignment = clamp(50 + 8 × |market score − 5| + observed-change adjustment + RSI adjustment, 0, 95)

The observed-change adjustment is 0.4 points per absolute percentage point, capped at 8. RSI can add 8 when it supports the evidence state or subtract 5 when it is stretched against that state. Missing inputs add nothing.

TradeProview does not supply an entry recommendation, profit target, stop-loss instruction or synthetic backtest. The learner writes a thesis, confirmation, invalidation and risk rule, then tests that plan with virtual money.

4. Scenario weights—not forecasts

The market-intelligence page partitions the current market score into bullish, mixed and bearish scenario weights. They are a visual restatement of the same score.

bull = max(0, score − 5) · bear = max(0, 5 − score) · mixed = max(0, 5 − |score − 5|) · then normalise to 100%

These weights are not empirical probabilities and have no promised time horizon. They help a learner compare conditions for three scenarios before writing a plan.

5. Skill Score (0–100)

The Skill Score measures recorded process, never profit, account value or win rate. Five dimensions are used: planning, risk, discipline, analysis and reflection.

dimension score = round(100 × successes/opportunities × (0.7 + 0.3 × min(1, opportunities/5)))
DimensionSuccessOpportunity
PlanningA practised mission has a written setup or both thesis and confirmation.Practised missions.
RiskA practised mission has both invalidation and a written risk rule.Practised missions.
DisciplineThe learner records that the written plan was followed.Reviewed missions.
AnalysisA knowledge-check answer is correct.Knowledge-check attempts.
ReflectionA practised mission receives a completed review.Practised missions.

The overall Skill Score is the rounded mean of the five dimensions. The evidence-volume factor rises from 0.76 on the first opportunity to 1.0 at five, so a single action cannot appear fully established.

6. Paper-practice performance

Only closed paper trades enter performance statistics. Open positions are excluded. Win rate is wins divided by closed trades; expectancy is the average profit/loss across closed trades; profit factor is gross profit divided by absolute gross loss; maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in cumulative paper profit/loss.

These metrics describe virtual practice history. They do not demonstrate real-world execution quality or predict future results.

7. AI interpretation and safety limits

Tradie receives a context block containing available observations and source-attributed information. Its instruction is to use only that context, label facts and calculations, present balanced bull/base/bear cases, and say when a value is unavailable.

AI text can still be incomplete or wrong. It must not be treated as a recommendation, a personalised assessment or a substitute for professional advice. No AI output can execute a real-money trade on TradeProview.

A disclaimer does not turn a substantive recommendation into factual education. The product therefore removes BUY/SELL calls and directs each learner to form and paper-test their own plan.

8. News summaries and WatchDog Briefs

Every story keeps the publisher link and reported publication time supplied by the RSS feed. A story is labelled “Older news” only when its publication time is more than 72 hours before the current check.

The first summary line uses a short RSS description when it contains information beyond the headline. If the feed supplies only a headline, TradeProview says “Summary” and restates only that headline. It does not claim to have read details that were not supplied.

The “Why it matters” line and category tags are rule-based prompts derived from words in the supplied headline, such as earnings, analyst action, legal developments or price movement. WatchDog Briefs collect claims that deserve verification; they are not original reporting or a full fact-check.

9. Sources and review

This publication documents product behaviour; it is not a legal opinion. Operator, privacy and Australian financial-services wording should still receive professional review.